Ukraine's 'turned tide' doesn't comport 'with basic military reality'

Ukraine's 'turned tide' doesn't comport 'with basic military reality' Encouraged by Ukraine’s sustained advances in drone warfare, Western media is abuzz with the idea that Kyiv just might be able to defeat Russia after more than four years of bitter fighting.In May, TIME hailed (time.com) Ukraine’s drone industry as giving Kyiv “the cards to win without U.S. help.” Last month, CNN lauded (cnn.com) Ukrainian drone strikes near Moscow as “a likely turning point” in the war. Earlier this month, Defense One even framed the conflict as a settled matter with the headline (defenseone.com) “How Ukraine won the first great robot war.”But this isn't the first time the press has played up Ukraine's military capabilities, despite repeated setbacks on the battlefield. As experts warn RS, such coverage reinforces the idea that more military aid can still help Ukraine win back all of its territory, thus downplaying the need for a negotiated solution. ​Overplaying Ukraine's hand  As Daniel Davis, a military expert at Defense Priorities, tells RS, “western media narratives claiming Ukraine has 'turned the tide' do not survive contact with basic military reality.” “Tactical Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and supply hubs — like the recent hits on [Russian retailer] Wildberries near Moscow and St. Petersburg — make for dramatic television,” Davis wrote to RS, citing recent Ukrainian drone attacks within Russia (reuters.com). “They do not disrupt Moscow's core ability to wage a long-term war of attrition.” Michael Desch, an international relations professor at the University of Notre Dame, tells RS that drones alone cannot earn Ukraine a military victory. “Best Ukraine can do [with drones] is slow the Russians down a bit,” he said. “There is no doubt that Ukraine has recently upped its medium- and deep-strike drone operations against Russia and has done some damage,” he shared. “The problem with the [mainstream media] coverage is that it ignores: a) Russia is doing the same [and] b) Russia is still making consistent gains on the ground.” To Desch’s point, Russian forces continue (russiamatters.org › russia ukraine war report card july 22 2026), albeit slowly, to push westward into Eastern Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine say (reuters.com) they have captured villages at the war’s frontlines. More broadly, as Barry Posen, a political science professor at MIT, tells RS, “the press highlights anything that looks like positive news for Ukraine from the battlefield. And it tends to minimize Ukrainian setbacks.” Posen cited Ukraine’s 2024 Kursk offensive (defensepriorities.org) as an episode where the media overplayed Kyiv’s prospects. “It was clear that this [offensive] was a diversion of scarce Ukrainian combat power to a mission that could not produce important military results. And it ended very badly for Ukraine,” he said. The media similarly overhyped (fair.org) Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023, where Kyiv tried to retake Russian-held territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. “It turned into a horrendous sacrifice of soldiers on minefields and the drone-infested steppe,” Almut Rochowanski, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, said. “No gain to Ukraine at all, but enormous human and material resources were squandered.” Despite repeated military setba