Why Did Iran Launch a Surprise Attack on U.S. Bases in Jordan?Missiles are displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran, Iran on July 24, 2026. Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty ImagesThe Iranian…
Why Did Iran Launch a Surprise Attack on U.S. Bases in Jordan?
(substackcdn.com)Missiles are displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran, Iran on July 24, 2026. Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty ImagesThe Iranian strike on U.S. bases in Jordan (aljazeera.com) during Volodymyr Zelensky’s and Benjamin Netanyahu’s visits to Washington caught (x.com) American decision-makers off guard. The timing alone guaranteed that the attack would be interpreted as a dramatic escalation. The prevailing explanations followed a familiar pattern: Tehran was overplaying its hand, hardliners were sabotaging diplomacy, Iran was probing Donald Trump’s resolve, or the strike was retaliation for recent U.S.-Saudi operations against Iraqi militias.Each of these interpretations may capture part of the picture. None, however, likely explains the broader strategic logic driving Tehran’s calculations.
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